October 19th (Middlebury Inn) - Friendship Breakfast
October 26th (Home Health and Hospice) Social at 5 p.m.
November 2nd (Rosie's) - Marilyn Bedell
PRESIDING: Spence Putnam
MINUTES OF October 12th meeting
ANNOUNCEMENTS:
Birthdays:
Jim Needham - October 16th
Wedding Anniversaries:
Bill Cunningham - 37 years
Group Updates:
Spence -
Dues reminder went out - please get those in to ensure funds in the Club Account
Spence / Gary - Window Dressers
Need more volunteers for the build, please sign up for a few more shifts.
The goal was to have 200 windows and there are 161 measured and enough folks signed up to reach our goal of 200. There is a waitlist for 2023 and the crew will work with Bristol to see if they can help with the build.
Thank you to several key folks who have helped with the measurements and getting them into the system
John B and Maureen - Membership Committee
Rotary Friendship Breakfast will take place on October 19th and bring a friend! There will be trivia and fun conversations.
Mike – Annual Silent Auction Fundraiser will go live around October 14th and will conclude on October 28th at 9 p.m.
Items are still coming in and being entered. Please continue to go out and get donated items (refer to Mike's list)
An email has been sent to previous bidders to let them know the auction is live.
Spence - Car Show will take place on Sunday, October 16th
Set up is at 8:30 and the event is from 10-3. Spence will send out an email to gather volunteers.
The group will be promoting Polio Awareness and Rotary efforts.
Liz- Parent Child Center Holiday Event
Liz asked the group about doing something for the PCC and there was a lot of enthusiasm. If you are interested, please email Liz.
Eric - November 12th Training - (anticipated 8:30 am to 2 pm), Lyndon Campus of Northern Vermont University: Targeted towards leadership and management of a club - very helpful for Presidents and President Elects
Sargent of Arms:
Fines and Happy Dollars
Fines:
Fran - Late
Jason - Late
Buzz - Fined for calling the Bandstand a "Gazebo", no name tag, and for Eric not being at the car show event, even though he sparked the idea of being part of it
Ben - Fined himself for sending out the "Trunk or Treat email" (Would love volunteers)
Happy Dollars:
John B - Thank you to Liz for generous donation to Diana's family (Ukraine Relief Project)
Liz - Happy for retiring on December 31st! (Congratulations!)
Mark - Thank you everyone for a great summer and is headed down south for the winter.
Paul - Celebrated his wedding anniversary and did a bike tour in Mississippi
Steve - Thank you to Mike for all his hard work on the auction
Jim - Celebrated his birthday at Moosehead Lake
Mike - Thank you to everyone who donated
Spence - Happy for the speaker
Guest Speaker – Matt Dickinson (Political Science Professor at Middlebury College)
Matt received his Ph. D from Harvard University, where he previously taught. He hosts a blog and published numerous articles.
Matt discussed the highlights of the Mid-Term elections coming up and what can be expected based on the science behind politics.
There are 435 House Seats and 220 Democrat / 212 Republican. There are 6 important toss ups happening that will help determine if there is a flip. These include Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Florida. Based on previous trends, when there is a major event - there is a change in majority. Example 1934 (After the Great Depression), 1998 (After impeachment) and 2002 (After 9/11)
There are 3 explanations to the number of seats loss in number of voters:
1) President "Surge"
During president elections - there is an increase in about 60% more voters than mid-term elections. This leads to every individual who voted for the President, loses 2.2 seats - which is about 31 seat drop off for the Democrats in 2022.
The voters who went to the president election are not going to the mid-terms
2) Referendum on the President:
Votes are based on the voters' opinions on the president in the past 2 years and the popularity. Biden's popularity is not in his favor and the forecast is the Republicans will have 53% of the votes which is about a 35 seat drop off for the Democrats (taking geography into consideration which favors the Reps)
3) Balancing Argument:
This is the most polarized Dems and Reps have been since the Civil War. There are constant unstable majorities.
Based on what is happening there is no midpoint - voters are either far left or far right.
In terms of presidential time, usually the first 2 years cater to the base (Dems for Biden) and then there is a balance returned after the mid-terms.
There is also ambivalence in hot button issues such as abortion.
This will likely lead to a decrease in Dems seats to balance out the house.
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